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Jun 20, 2021 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 20 19:37:02 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210620 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20210620 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 23,415 2,001,721 Las Vegas, NV...Henderson, NV...Paradise, NV...Sunrise Manor, NV...North Las Vegas, NV...
   FNUS22 KWNS 201936

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


   ...Southern Nevada...
   With very strong heating and thermal pressure trough development,
   the increasing mid-level flow across southern Nevada will lead to
   lead to a targeted area of critical fire weather in southern Nevada.
   With lightning activity within the last three days, there is some
   potential for holder fire activity.

   ...Northern California/Oregon...
   With the approach of a shortwave trough late in the day, isolated
   thunderstorms could develop within south-central Oregon during the
   afternoon. A broader area of mid-level convection is possible into
   the overnight as a disturbance moves northward through the area.
   PWAT values will be increasing through the day and will potentially
   be near 0.8-0.9 in. during the overnight. However, there still is
   potential for lightning ignitions for a few reasons: 1) elevated
   convection will be moving quickly, 2) limited buoyancy will keep the
   lifespan of any one convective element short, and 3) low-levels
   still appear modestly dry in forecast soundings.

   ..Wendt.. 06/20/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021/

   A deepening trough across the northern third of the US will keep
   cooler and wetter conditions across the center of the country
   through Monday. High pressure over the Southwest will gradually
   weaken as a mid-level low moves onshore across California. Elevated
   fire weather conditions may develop across portions of the
   Southwest, while thunderstorms are expected across the West Coast. 

   ...Southern Great Basin...
   On the periphery of the suppressed ridge across the Southwest,
   stronger mid-level flow will begin to overspread the southern Great
   Basin ahead of a Pacific trough Day2/Monday. Sheltered from the
   cooler airmass associated with the stalled front through the
   Rockies, warm and dry conditions are expected with surface RH of
   10-15%. The favorable overlap of dry surface conditions and gusty
   winds will support elevated to near critical fire weather potential
   through the day. A corridor of critical fire weather conditions may
   develop across southern Nevada and Utah Monday afternoon, where
   stronger mid-level flow may enhance westerly surface winds to 20-30
   mph. However, model differences highlight some uncertainty with the
   eastward extent of the stronger mid-level flow, suggesting low
   predictability for widespread/concentrated critical conditions. 

   ..Northern California and southern Oregon...
   A few thunderstorms may develop Monday as moist onshore flow ahead
   of the Pacific trough overspreads the West Coast. Model soundings
   show sufficient instability for isolated lightning strikes from late
   afternoon through the evening. Fuels are receptive to starts, but
   increasing moisture with PWATS near 1 inch suggest storms may
   produce enough precipitation to limit significant potential for dry

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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