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Jan 16, 2021 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 16 06:55:03 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210116 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20210116 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160653

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CST Sat Jan 16 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level ridging is forecast to build eastward from the West
   Coast into the inter-mountain West on Sunday. As this occurs,
   surface high pressure will migrate southeastward from the Pacific
   Northwest into the northern Great Basin before weakening late in the
   day. This will maintain offshore pressure-gradient flow across
   southern California at least for the first half of the day.
   Elsewhere, cool conditions with relatively weak pressure gradient
   winds will limit widespread fire weather concerns. 

   ...Southern California...
   Early morning guidance suggests that breezy conditions (sustained
   winds near 15-25 mph) may be ongoing at the start of the period
   Sunday morning due to the maintenance of a -5 to -7 mb LAX-DAG
   pressure gradient as the aforementioned surface high builds
   southward. Upper-level support for strong winds will likely wane
   through the day as the upper-level ridge shifts east/southeastward,
   but wind gusts up to 45 mph for wind-prone locations appear possible
   during the morning hours. While RH recoveries will be minimal
   overall, ensemble guidance does suggest that slightly cooler
   temperatures may keep RH values in the upper teens to 20s during the
   morning hours coincident with the strongest winds. RH values will
   likely fall further in the afternoon, but it is uncertain how long
   the strong winds will persist and temporally overlap with more
   favorable RH. Overall, elevated fire weather conditions appear most
   likely due to the limited temporal overlap of critical wind/RH
   thresholds. However, localized/transient critical conditions will be
   possible during the morning hours and could be more widespread if
   strong winds can persist into the afternoon hours.

   ..Moore.. 01/16/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: January 16, 2021
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