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Sep 28, 2023 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 28 06:20:04 UTC 2023 (Print Version | 20230928 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20230928 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 280619

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of
   southern WY into adjacent areas of UT and CO Friday afternoon.
   Early-morning water-vapor imagery across the northeast Pacific
   depicts two shortwave impulses embedded within the mean
   northwesterly flow. The second of these is expected to amplify over
   the next 48 hours along the West Coast, resulting in strengthening
   mid-level southwesterly flow from the lower CO River Valley into the
   central Rockies. This flow regime will also maintain dry conditions
   across the Great Basin. Consequently, dry and windy conditions are
   forecast across a large swath of the Great Basin Friday afternoon.
   Recent ensemble guidance suggests elevated to locally critical fire
   weather conditions are probable, but may be patchy in nature across
   the region. This, combined with generally unreceptive fuels for most
   locations, limits confidence in the coverage of the fire weather
   threat. However, portions of southern WY, northeast UT, and
   northwest CO should see favorable overlap of elevated conditions
   with dry fuels - especially after several previous days of similarly
   dry/windy weather. Elsewhere, windy conditions are expected across
   KS and southern NE as a lee trough continues to strengthen. While
   20+ mph winds are expected, confidence in sub-25% RH is limited due
   to persistent moisture advection from the south. Trends will
   continue to be monitored for fuel dryness and the quality of
   moisture return.

   ..Moore.. 09/28/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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