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Nov 29, 2020 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 29 20:01:02 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20201129 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20201129 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 291959

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...Southern California...
   The elevated area has been extended up the coast into portions of
   Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, mainly for late in the
   period when the pressure gradient may support stronger winds in
   these areas. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with
   elevated to locally critical conditions possible across
   terrain-favored regions of southern CA. See the previous discussion
   below for more information. 

   ...Colorado Front Range into eastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle and
   central Montana...
   Locally elevated conditions are expected for a portion of eastern WY
   into the NE Panhandle, where strong downslope flow will support RH
   dropping to near or below 20% amidst sustained winds of 15-25 mph
   (with higher gusts). With temperatures expected to remain relatively
   cool and uncertainty regarding the duration of any elevated
   conditions, no Elevated area has been included at this time. 

   Locally elevated conditions will be possible southward along the CO
   Front Range, though winds should be weaker with southward extent.
   Locally elevated conditions will also be possible associated with
   downslope flow into portions of central MT. 

   ...Southern Arizona...
   Relatively strong low-level easterly flow is expected to develop
   Monday morning across parts of southern AZ, though winds are
   expected to weaken during the afternoon prior to peak heating.
   Locally elevated conditions will be possible, though confidence in a
   sufficient duration of any such conditions is too low to include an
   Elevated delineation at this time.

   ..Dean.. 11/29/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/

   A dominant surface high over the central CONUS will gradually shift
   south through the day Monday. This will have the affect of bringing
   calmer and cool conditions to much of the Plains as well as help
   weaken the pressure gradient over the Southwest. Fire weather
   concerns will largely be limited to locations that typically
   experience terrain-augmented winds across parts of southern
   California and possibly along the foothills of eastern Wyoming.

   ...Southern California...
   The gradual shift of the surface high from the central
   Rockies/northern Great Basin into the southern High Plains will help
   alleviate the offshore pressure gradient across southern California
   to a degree. Despite an improving synoptic pattern, mid-level winds
   are forecast to strengthen as a progressive upper-level trough
   glances the region to the north. Afternoon boundary-layer mixing
   will likely support 15-25 mph winds down to the surface within the
   higher elevations, which, when coupled with antecedent low RH values
   and dry conditions, will foster areas of elevated fire weather
   conditions through Monday afternoon. Surface high pressure is
   forecast to become re-established over the northern Great Basin by
   late Monday/early Tuesday in the wake of Monday's upper-level trough
   passage. This may result in a re-intensification of the offshore
   pressure gradient and allow for pockets of elevated fire weather
   conditions to linger into early Tuesday.

   ...Eastern Wyoming...
   The same upper-level shortwave trough that will bring an uptick in
   mid-level winds to the Southwest will also help drive lee troughing
   along the northern High Plains Monday afternoon. This troughing,
   combined with increasing 850-700 mb westerly flow, will help drive
   areas of gusty west/southwesterly winds. Downslope warming and
   drying may allow a few locations to see elevated fire weather
   conditions, but this is expected to largely be confined to the
   immediate leeward side of elevation features. Recent ensemble
   guidance suggests that the most likely location for this to occur is
   across the foothills of eastern WY where ERC values are slightly
   elevated, but a lack of support from deterministic RH solutions and
   only modestly receptive fuels yields low confidence in the fire
   weather potential at this time. As such, no highlights are
   introduced, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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