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Jul 17, 2018 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 17 07:13:03 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180717 1200Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180717 1200Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 170711

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   An upper-level ridge will become established across the western
   CONUS during the Day 2/Wednesday period. A belt of stronger
   mid-level flow will traverse the ridge during the late afternoon
   hours across the northeastern Great Basin, towards the Front Range.
   A surface high will also develop over the higher terrain of the
   Rocky Mountains, promoting the development of modest pressure
   gradients and associated downslope flow across the Great Basin into
   southeast portions of the Pacific Northwest. 

   ...Central Oregon/Washington into Idaho and northern Nevada...
   Downslope flow east of the Cascades and 35-45 knot mid-level flow
   partially mixing to the surface via a deep boundary layer will
   likely promote sustained 15-25 mph surface winds and 15-25% surface
   RH across much of the region. Locally critical conditions (driven by
   periods of 15% RH and 25 mph sustained surface winds) are possible
   along the lees of the Cascades and White Knob Mountains for brief
   periods during the late afternoon hours. An elevated area was
   maintained for areas east of the Cascades to the Snake River Plain
   given the availability of receptive fuels in this area. 

   ...Northern Montana...
   A well-mixed boundary layer will allow for more efficient transport
   of stronger winds aloft to the surface compared to areas farther
   southwest. 15-25 mph surface winds and 10-15% RH will be common
   across grassland regions of northern Montana, east of the northern
   Rockies. Locally critical winds may potentially overlap critical RH,
   with fuels recently becoming receptive to fire spread. An elevated
   area was thus continued for northern Montana.
   ...Southwest Wyoming...  
   Downslope flow is expected to prevail across the lower terrain of
   southwestern Wyoming, with 15-20 mph sustained surface winds and
   10-20% surface RH expected during the mid to late afternoon hours in
   the Green River Valley and to the lee of the Wind River Range. Fuels
   are expected to be at least marginally receptive to fire spread in
   this area, so the elevated delineation was maintained.

   ...Southern Montana...
   Recent CAM guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorms may develop
   off of the higher terrain of the northern Rockies across southwest
   Montana, amidst modest mid-level flow, marginal buoyancy, and
   0.5-0.75 inch precipitable water values. Isolated dry lightning may
   occur in this region, but spread among model guidance precludes an
   isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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