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Jul 16, 2018 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 16 19:25:03 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180716 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180716 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 161924

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   Elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions (sustained
   west-southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph; RH values of 10-30%) are
   expected to develop in/around the Columbia River Gorge/Basin and
   along/east of the Cascades from central Washington to central
   Oregon. Stronger winds are expected to develop as the pressure
   gradient increases between onshore flow west of the Cascades and the
   thermal trough east of the Cascades and overlap with a hot/dry air
   mass. Elevated fire weather conditions should also develop tomorrow
   afternoon/evening across portions of the Snake River Plain as
   stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface (15-20 mph) associated
   with the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough and overlap with
   RH values of 10-20%. Any increase of winds/drying could exacerbate
   fire activity given the recent lightning and fire ignitions across
   some of these areas.

   Additionally, the isolated dry thunderstorm area was slightly
   modified based on latest guidance, but remains on track.

   ..Nauslar.. 07/16/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

   Zonal flow will persist across the Pacific Northwest during the Day
   2/Tuesday period. At the surface, a thermal low will develop east of
   the Cascades. Mid-level moisture attributed to the monsoon will also
   hover over the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest.

   ...Central/eastern Washington and Oregon...
   A very hot surface airmass is expected to develop east of the
   Cascades during the afternoon on Day 2/Tuesday, promoting the
   development of a thermal low/trough. A weak pressure gradient will
   result from the trough, inducing downslope flow to the lee of the
   Cascades. Surface winds are expected to reach up to 15-20 mph during
   the late afternoon in the presence of 100 F temperatures and 10-15%
   RH. With receptive fuels present, an elevated delineation was made
   where windy and hot/dry conditions may support an environment
   favorable for fire spread. 

   ...Idaho/Montana border into far west Wyoming...
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the periphery
   of greater mid-level moisture associated with the monsoon. An
   isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added where the greatest
   confidence in dry strikes would be, in addition to faster storm
   motions due to a belt of stronger mid-level flow embedded within the
   larger scale zonal pattern. Fuels have also become at least
   marginally receptive to fire spread.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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