Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Sep 27 18:51:03 UTC 2022 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Sep 27 18:51:03 UTC 2022 (
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Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 271849
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR GULF COAST...
Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has shown a slight uptick
in wind speed magnitudes across both the southern/southeast OR
region and the Gulf Coast states. Consequently, the risk areas were
adjusted to account for the potential for stronger winds and to
address areas where recent reports indicate fuels are receptive.
Some spread is noted in the wind fields across northern MS, AL, and
northwest GA for Wednesday afternoon due to variance in the forecast
track of Hurricane Ian, but strengthening winds in the 925-850 mb
layer across southern portions of these states will maintain
reasonably high confidence for critical wind/RH conditions with
gusts up to 30 mph possible in some locations.
...Eastern Wyoming and Central/Northern Plains...
Guidance continues to show poor consensus regarding the potential
for substantial/widespread fire weather conditions tomorrow
afternoon across central/eastern WY and the central to northern
Plains. Confidence remains too low for additional highlights, but
areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible
across both regions.
..Moore.. 09/27/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/
...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern on Wednesday will generally be an
eastward-shifted version of Tuesday. The Northwest trough will
continue east as will the large ridge in the Plains and the
weakening trough in the Northeast. Hurricane Ian will continue to
near the western Florida coast as a stout surface high pushes
farther into the Great Lakes region.
...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
The surface pressure gradient is expected to further increase from
Tuesday. A few hours of winds around 15-20+ mph appear probable
across parts of the region. With dry air remaining, RH could fall
near 20-25% in some locations with other areas observing values near
30%. Critical fire weather is expected, particularly near the coast.
Further inland, elevated to locally critical conditions will occur.
...Southeast Oregon Vicinity...
Continued progression of the trough will promote a similar setup to
Tuesday. Winds may be slightly stronger, however, with broader
coverage of winds closer to 20 mph. RH of 15-20% is expected.
...Central Plains...
A surface low will develop in the lee of the Canadian Rockies while
the surface high in the Midwest maintains intensity. Breezy
southerly winds are possible from Nebraska into the Dakotas. With
the cooler air moving in with the surface high and possible cloud
cover, it is unclear how low RH will fall. This uncertainty is borne
out in ensemble guidance as well. Farther west in southeast Wyoming,
conditions will be much drier, but the pressure gradient will be
weaker. No highlights will be added this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...