Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Jul 10 19:39:02 UTC 2020 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Jul 10 19:39:02 UTC 2020 (
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Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101937
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. Slightly more favorable timing
of the mid-level jet across Washington is apparent in the most
recent guidance. This would suggest some locally critical conditions
may occur within the Columbia Basin/Gorge. Eastern areas of the
Basin may see elevated conditions beyond sunset before RH begins to
recover. Along the lee of the southern Cascades, locally elevated
conditions are possible. Weaker mid-level winds and a surface
pressure gradient increasing late in the day decrease confidence in
the duration of fire risk tomorrow afternoon/evening. Dry
thunderstorms over very dry fuels remain possible along the Mogollon
Rim into southern Utah. Models forecast subtle/slight cooling of the
mid-levels compared to Friday. Even so, coverage is still expected
to be quite low and no highlights will be added.
..Wendt.. 07/10/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/
...Synopsis...
Strong ridging will continue over much of the southwestern US while
a shortwave trough will approach the western US Coast late in the
Day 2/Saturday forecast period. Very warm temperatures are expected
across much of the Southwest with seasonally low RH, but relatively
weak winds. Across the eastern US, an upper low over Canada should
remain in place with abundant low-level moisture and modest flow
aloft limiting fire weather potential.
...Lee of the Cascades...
The approaching upper-level trough is expected to remain offshore
through much of the day Saturday, before moving onshore later in the
period. Relatively dry surface conditions are expected, with RH
approaching 30% given westerly downslope flow and warm surface
temperatures. While flow aloft should increase some through the day,
the lack of overlap between peak heating, the deepest boundary-layer
mixing, and minimum surface RH suggests that momentum transfer will
be modest. This should serve to limit fire weather potential to
mainly elevated conditions. This is also in agreement with the
current state of fuels, which are expected to remain mostly confined
to lower elevations and densities, supporting only modest potential
for large fire growth.
...Southern Great Basin...
Very warm and dry surface conditions are expected underneath the
ridge across the Southwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with
a weak mid-level shortwave trough on the periphery of the ridge may
support locally elevated fire weather conditions across southern/
central Nevada into far western Utah. A dry thunderstorm or two may
also develop if sufficient forcing for ascent can be realized from
the passing shortwave. However, considerable uncertainty in timing
of the breakdown of the upper-level ridge exists. Should the ridge
breakdown sooner than current guidance suggests, an elevated area
and possibly a dry thunder area could be needed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...