Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri Jul 10 19:39:02 UTC 2020 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 101937 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Slightly more favorable timing of the mid-level jet across Washington is apparent in the most recent guidance. This would suggest some locally critical conditions may occur within the Columbia Basin/Gorge. Eastern areas of the Basin may see elevated conditions beyond sunset before RH begins to recover. Along the lee of the southern Cascades, locally elevated conditions are possible. Weaker mid-level winds and a surface pressure gradient increasing late in the day decrease confidence in the duration of fire risk tomorrow afternoon/evening. Dry thunderstorms over very dry fuels remain possible along the Mogollon Rim into southern Utah. Models forecast subtle/slight cooling of the mid-levels compared to Friday. Even so, coverage is still expected to be quite low and no highlights will be added. ..Wendt.. 07/10/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will continue over much of the southwestern US while a shortwave trough will approach the western US Coast late in the Day 2/Saturday forecast period. Very warm temperatures are expected across much of the Southwest with seasonally low RH, but relatively weak winds. Across the eastern US, an upper low over Canada should remain in place with abundant low-level moisture and modest flow aloft limiting fire weather potential. ...Lee of the Cascades... The approaching upper-level trough is expected to remain offshore through much of the day Saturday, before moving onshore later in the period. Relatively dry surface conditions are expected, with RH approaching 30% given westerly downslope flow and warm surface temperatures. While flow aloft should increase some through the day, the lack of overlap between peak heating, the deepest boundary-layer mixing, and minimum surface RH suggests that momentum transfer will be modest. This should serve to limit fire weather potential to mainly elevated conditions. This is also in agreement with the current state of fuels, which are expected to remain mostly confined to lower elevations and densities, supporting only modest potential for large fire growth. ...Southern Great Basin... Very warm and dry surface conditions are expected underneath the ridge across the Southwest. Stronger mid-level flow associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough on the periphery of the ridge may support locally elevated fire weather conditions across southern/ central Nevada into far western Utah. A dry thunderstorm or two may also develop if sufficient forcing for ascent can be realized from the passing shortwave. However, considerable uncertainty in timing of the breakdown of the upper-level ridge exists. Should the ridge breakdown sooner than current guidance suggests, an elevated area and possibly a dry thunder area could be needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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