Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Sep 27 18:51:03 UTC 2022 (20220927 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20220927 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 55,407 5,106,834 New Orleans, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Metairie, LA...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 271849

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


   Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has shown a slight uptick
   in wind speed magnitudes across both the southern/southeast OR
   region and the Gulf Coast states. Consequently, the risk areas were
   adjusted to account for the potential for stronger winds and to
   address areas where recent reports indicate fuels are receptive.
   Some spread is noted in the wind fields across northern MS, AL, and
   northwest GA for Wednesday afternoon due to variance in the forecast
   track of Hurricane Ian, but strengthening winds in the 925-850 mb
   layer across southern portions of these states will maintain
   reasonably high confidence for critical wind/RH conditions with
   gusts up to 30 mph possible in some locations.

   ...Eastern Wyoming and Central/Northern Plains...
   Guidance continues to show poor consensus regarding the potential
   for substantial/widespread fire weather conditions tomorrow
   afternoon across central/eastern WY and the central to northern
   Plains. Confidence remains too low for additional highlights, but
   areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible
   across both regions.

   ..Moore.. 09/27/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

   The upper-level pattern on Wednesday will generally be an
   eastward-shifted version of Tuesday. The Northwest trough will
   continue east as will the large ridge in the Plains and the
   weakening trough in the Northeast. Hurricane Ian will continue to
   near the western Florida coast as a stout surface high pushes
   farther into the Great Lakes region.

   ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
   The surface pressure gradient is expected to further increase from
   Tuesday. A few hours of winds around 15-20+ mph appear probable
   across parts of the region. With dry air remaining, RH could fall
   near 20-25% in some locations with other areas observing values near
   30%. Critical fire weather is expected, particularly near the coast.
   Further inland, elevated to locally critical conditions will occur.

   ...Southeast Oregon Vicinity...
   Continued progression of the trough will promote a similar setup to
   Tuesday. Winds may be slightly stronger, however, with broader
   coverage of winds closer to 20 mph. RH of 15-20% is expected.

   ...Central Plains...
   A surface low will develop in the lee of the Canadian Rockies while
   the surface high in the Midwest maintains intensity. Breezy
   southerly winds are possible from Nebraska into the Dakotas. With
   the cooler air moving in with the surface high and possible cloud
   cover, it is unclear how low RH will fall. This uncertainty is borne
   out in ensemble guidance as well. Farther west in southeast Wyoming,
   conditions will be much drier, but the pressure gradient will be
   weaker. No highlights will be added this outlook.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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