Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Apr 13 19:31:03 UTC 2021 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 131929 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Carolinas and eastern GA... Minor changes have been made to the previous elevated area with some trimming across the northern half. Models remain split on the nature of the dry boundary layer across the region with several hi-res members indicating very dry surface RH below 15%. While winds are not forecast to be overly strong (10-15 mph) exceptionally dry fuels over south Carolina will support elevated fire weather conditions. A slight chance of rain across the northern half of the elevated area may hamper some fire weather potential with northward extent but this impact is expected to be relatively minor. ...Western Colorado and Eastern Utah... Widespread elevated/near critical fire weather conditions are likely across the western slope through Day2. Model guidance has come into better agreement on the positioning of the cold front and overnight precipitation corridor expected to develop ahead of the upper low. The latest guidance suggests the heaviest precipitation and cooler temps will remain north of the I-70 corridor leaving a rather large area with strong winds and very dry surface conditions. With less than 0.15 inches of QPF expected, any degradation of the fire weather environment from overnight precipitation should be minimal. While some uncertainty still remains, at minimum, elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the low and mid-elevations where substantial dry fuels exist. An upgrade to critical is possible should Day1 precipitation prove even lighter than expected. ..Lyons.. 04/13/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/ ...Synopsis... The amplifying mid-level trough and associated surface low that will promote favorable wildfire-spread conditions across the Southwest on Day 1 will meander across the Interior West as a cutoff low on Day 2. Given the lack of anticipated rainfall, fuels will continue to cure and support wildfire spread, especially across the lower terrain. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Southeast U.S., with a surface lee trough promoting a strong enough surface wind field coincident with very dry air across the southeast to promote some wildfire spread concerns. ...Portions of the Southwest U.S... Through the afternoon, widespread sustained southwesterly 15-25 mph surface winds are expected to develop with daytime heating, coinciding with 10-20% RH in most places across the Lower Colorado River Valley, where Elevated highlights were introduced. Guidance currently depicts northern Arizona into west-northwest New Mexico as the most likely location for Critical winds/RH to overlap for well over 3 hours, hence the Critical highlights. At least locally Critical conditions are expected across the Elevated area, and expansions to the Critical delineation may be needed in future outlooks. ...Portions of the Southeast U.S... 20-30% RH may develop across portions of eastern Georgia into South Carolina by afternoon peak heating tomorrow. Compared to previous days though, the passage of a surface lee trough and associated wind shift may result in at least 10-15 mph sustained southwesterly winds across the area before moister conditions and potential rainfall arrive. This surface wind/RH combination atop drying fine fuels (devoid of meaningful precipitation for over a week) may encourage Elevated conditions for fire spread. Some disagreement exists among guidance members, with some models showing a lack of favorable winds/RH. However, enough of a consensus has been reached among individual model members and ensemble guidance for the confidence in delineating Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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