Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Apr 13 19:31:03 UTC 2021 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Apr 13 19:31:03 UTC 2021 (
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Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131929
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
...Carolinas and eastern GA...
Minor changes have been made to the previous elevated area with some
trimming across the northern half. Models remain split on the nature
of the dry boundary layer across the region with several hi-res
members indicating very dry surface RH below 15%. While winds are
not forecast to be overly strong (10-15 mph) exceptionally dry fuels
over south Carolina will support elevated fire weather conditions. A
slight chance of rain across the northern half of the elevated area
may hamper some fire weather potential with northward extent but
this impact is expected to be relatively minor.
...Western Colorado and Eastern Utah...
Widespread elevated/near critical fire weather conditions are likely
across the western slope through Day2. Model guidance has come into
better agreement on the positioning of the cold front and overnight
precipitation corridor expected to develop ahead of the upper low.
The latest guidance suggests the heaviest precipitation and cooler
temps will remain north of the I-70 corridor leaving a rather large
area with strong winds and very dry surface conditions. With less
than 0.15 inches of QPF expected, any degradation of the fire
weather environment from overnight precipitation should be minimal.
While some uncertainty still remains, at minimum, elevated fire
weather conditions are likely across the low and mid-elevations
where substantial dry fuels exist. An upgrade to critical is
possible should Day1 precipitation prove even lighter than expected.
..Lyons.. 04/13/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/
...Synopsis...
The amplifying mid-level trough and associated surface low that will
promote favorable wildfire-spread conditions across the Southwest on
Day 1 will meander across the Interior West as a cutoff low on Day
2. Given the lack of anticipated rainfall, fuels will continue to
cure and support wildfire spread, especially across the lower
terrain. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to
traverse the Southeast U.S., with a surface lee trough promoting a
strong enough surface wind field coincident with very dry air across
the southeast to promote some wildfire spread concerns.
...Portions of the Southwest U.S...
Through the afternoon, widespread sustained southwesterly 15-25 mph
surface winds are expected to develop with daytime heating,
coinciding with 10-20% RH in most places across the Lower Colorado
River Valley, where Elevated highlights were introduced. Guidance
currently depicts northern Arizona into west-northwest New Mexico as
the most likely location for Critical winds/RH to overlap for well
over 3 hours, hence the Critical highlights. At least locally
Critical conditions are expected across the Elevated area, and
expansions to the Critical delineation may be needed in future
outlooks.
...Portions of the Southeast U.S...
20-30% RH may develop across portions of eastern Georgia into South
Carolina by afternoon peak heating tomorrow. Compared to previous
days though, the passage of a surface lee trough and associated wind
shift may result in at least 10-15 mph sustained southwesterly winds
across the area before moister conditions and potential rainfall
arrive. This surface wind/RH combination atop drying fine fuels
(devoid of meaningful precipitation for over a week) may encourage
Elevated conditions for fire spread. Some disagreement exists among
guidance members, with some models showing a lack of favorable
winds/RH. However, enough of a consensus has been reached among
individual model members and ensemble guidance for the confidence in
delineating Elevated fire weather highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...