Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Apr 13 19:31:03 UTC 2021 (20210413 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20210413 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 37,438 301,385 Farmington, NM...Gallup, NM...Grants, NM...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131929

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
   NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

   ...Carolinas and eastern GA...
   Minor changes have been made to the previous elevated area with some
   trimming across the northern half. Models remain split on the nature
   of the dry boundary layer across the region with several hi-res
   members indicating very dry surface RH below 15%. While winds are
   not forecast to be overly strong (10-15 mph) exceptionally dry fuels
   over south Carolina will support elevated fire weather conditions. A
   slight chance of rain across the northern half of the elevated area
   may hamper some fire weather potential with northward extent but
   this impact is expected to be relatively minor.

   ...Western Colorado and Eastern Utah...
   Widespread elevated/near critical fire weather conditions are likely
   across the western slope through Day2. Model guidance has come into
   better agreement on the positioning of the cold front and overnight
   precipitation corridor expected to develop ahead of the upper low.
   The latest guidance suggests the heaviest precipitation and cooler
   temps will remain north of the I-70 corridor leaving a rather large
   area with strong winds and very dry surface conditions. With less
   than 0.15 inches of QPF expected, any degradation of the fire
   weather environment from overnight precipitation should be minimal.
   While some uncertainty still remains, at minimum, elevated fire
   weather conditions are likely across the low and mid-elevations
   where substantial dry fuels exist. An upgrade to critical is
   possible should Day1 precipitation prove even lighter than expected.

   ..Lyons.. 04/13/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   The amplifying mid-level trough and associated surface low that will
   promote favorable wildfire-spread conditions across the Southwest on
   Day 1 will meander across the Interior West as a cutoff low on Day
   2. Given the lack of anticipated rainfall, fuels will continue to
   cure and support wildfire spread, especially across the lower
   terrain. Meanwhile, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to
   traverse the Southeast U.S., with a surface lee trough promoting a
   strong enough surface wind field coincident with very dry air across
   the southeast to promote some wildfire spread concerns. 

   ...Portions of the Southwest U.S...
   Through the afternoon, widespread sustained southwesterly 15-25 mph
   surface winds are expected to develop with daytime heating,
   coinciding with 10-20% RH in most places across the Lower Colorado
   River Valley, where Elevated highlights were introduced.  Guidance
   currently depicts northern Arizona into west-northwest New Mexico as
   the most likely location for Critical winds/RH to overlap for well
   over 3 hours, hence the Critical highlights. At least locally
   Critical conditions are expected across the Elevated area, and
   expansions to the Critical delineation may be needed in future
   outlooks.

   ...Portions of the Southeast U.S...
   20-30% RH may develop across portions of eastern Georgia into South
   Carolina by afternoon peak heating tomorrow. Compared to previous
   days though, the passage of a surface lee trough and associated wind
   shift may result in at least 10-15 mph sustained southwesterly winds
   across the area before moister conditions and potential rainfall
   arrive. This surface wind/RH combination atop drying fine fuels
   (devoid of meaningful precipitation for over a week) may encourage
   Elevated conditions for fire spread. Some disagreement exists among
   guidance members, with some models showing a lack of favorable
   winds/RH. However, enough of a consensus has been reached among
   individual model members and ensemble guidance for the confidence in
   delineating Elevated fire weather highlights.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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