Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241607

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1007 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

   Valid 241700Z - 251200Z

   The previous forecast remains largely on track. In addition, a
   relatively dry surface airmass remains in place across the eastern
   Mid Atlantic (RH dropping to 35% in some locations), which will lead
   to further drying of the finer fuels. Nonetheless, the lack of a
   stronger wind field and warmer temperatures preclude an elevated
   area delineation.

   Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/24/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   A vigorous mid-level trough will develop across the central Rockies
   in the wake of a lead wave traversing the Mid-Mississippi Valley and
   vicinity.  Lee surface cyclogenesis will develop in response to this
   troughing across the Texas South Plains and vicinity during the
   afternoon.  This will encourage a fire-weather threat to develop in
   the southern High Plains, though this threat will be tempered by
   uncured fuels in several areas.

   ...Eastern New Mexico and far west Texas...
   Along and west of the surface low/trough, substantial heating and
   drying will take place during the afternoon.  RH values will fall as
   low as single digits in some areas of east-central New Mexico, while
   falling to higher values (around 15-25%) in west Texas.  This,
   combined with wind speeds approaching 30 mph in a few areas, will
   foster development of critical atmospheric conditions.  The limiting
   factor for a higher fire-weather risk is fuel states, with portions
   of the region experiencing wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. 
   Thus, an elevated fire-weather delineation is in place to address
   the threat.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241851

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   Much of the forecast remains on track. A few modifications were made
   to the Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley elevated
   area, with the delineation trimmed back to the areas where fuels
   with the relatively highest receptiveness for wildfire spread exist.

   Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/24/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong surface high (>1042 mb) will settle into portions of the
   central Rockies and eastern Great Basin D2/Tue.  As this occurs, a
   favorable pressure gradient will set up for gusty winds to occur in
   a broad part of the southwestern U.S. from southern California
   eastward to west Texas.  The dry, continental airmass across the
   region will warm and lead to elevated fire-weather conditions,
   though unfavorable fuels in many areas should keep any critical
   fire-weather conditions very localized.

   ...Southern New Mexico and west Texas...
   Central Rockies high pressure and a front/surface low near south
   Texas will foster development of widespread areas of 20-35 mph
   surface winds with a few higher gusts in terrain-favored areas.
   These winds will occur within a dry airmass, with RH values falling
   to the single digits across New Mexico despite surface temperatures
   only reaching the upper 40s F in some of those areas.  Slightly
   higher RH values are expected near the Rio Grande Valley, though
   10-20% values will become common during peak heating.  Again, recent
   rainfall and low ERCs are expected to limit the extent of the
   fire-weather threat in these areas, though if finer fuels can carry
   large fires, critical atmospheric fire-weather conditions will
   exist.

   ...Southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley...
   A similar regime for easterly/northeasterly flow will exist across
   these areas in response to the very strong area of high pressure
   across the central Rockies and surface trough located roughly along
   the California coast.  25-35 mph surface winds will become common
   across the area, with higher gusts possible across terrain-favored
   areas of southern California coastal ranges.  These winds will occur
   amidst critically low RH values ranging from 3-15% across the
   region.  Where fuels are dry, critical fire weather conditions will
   exist - however the extent of critically dry fuels is expected to be
   limited.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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