ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101633
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Valid 101700Z - 111200Z
The Elevated area was expanded slightly westward in southeastern AZ
based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance.
Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Weinman.. 06/10/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/
...Synopsis...
The leading edge of moderate mid-level flow will approach southern
Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Amid deep mixing this should
lead to some increased surface winds around 15 to 20 mph.
Single-digit relative humidity is expected across most of this area
during the afternoon. Given the later arrival of the stronger
mid-level flow, do not expect elevated conditions to develop until
late afternoon, but they could persist into the late evening before
winds dissipate and relative humidity increases.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101843
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made
based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. For details,
see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 06/10/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/
...Synopsis...
40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will start to overspread the
Southwest on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves out of southern
Arizona into New Mexico. Deep mixing will bring some of this
stronger flow to the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
expected. Relative humidity of 8 to 15 percent is expected in a
region with 90th percentile ERCs. Therefore, elevated conditions are
expected late morning and continuing into the evening hours across
much of southeast Arizona and southwest/western New Mexico. A
smaller area of critical fire weather conditions are most likely
across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where these
strongest winds are expected and the greatest chance for large fire
spread will exist.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
