Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 154,216 2,505,579 El Paso, TX...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150702

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and
   eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low
   should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure
   falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over
   much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels
   will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical
   fire-weather conditions.

   ...Southern and central High Plains...
   As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt
   mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the
   afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force
   strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a
   dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface
   winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong
   pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow
   aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low,
   falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and
   receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry
   surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical
   fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of
   the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. 

   Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as
   strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and
   evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme
   conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS
   and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest
   TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit
   RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on
   the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce
   any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists
   on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and
   high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to
   capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should
   the dryline mix farther east.

   ...Missouri Valley...
   Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of
   northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry
   air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to
   precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these
   dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels
   and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain
   localized.

   ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150704

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the
   Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east.
   The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move
   eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty
   winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the
   southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of
   critical conditions is uncertain.

   ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend...
   As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early
   D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern
   High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly
   flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern
   NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through
   part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a
   few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
   still appear likely given widespread dry fuels.

   Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther
   east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty
   winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the
   secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and
   uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this
   threat will be brief and localized.

   ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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