Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 271548

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1048 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed for
   both the Gulf Coast and southern Oregon regions. Morning water vapor
   imagery shows broad subsidence across the Southeast, which will
   maintain warm, dry conditions today as RH values continue to fall
   into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds near 15 mph are expected by
   early afternoon, and gusts up to 20-25 mph will support periods of
   critical fire weather conditions. Across northern CA/southern OR,
   GOES Derived Winds is estimating mid-level winds near 20-25 mph,
   which is in line with latest guidance and supports the ongoing
   forecast (see previous discussion below). 

   ...Southwest to Central Oklahoma...
   A few surface stations are reporting elevated fire weather
   conditions across western OK ahead of a weak surface trough/cold
   front. Boundary layer winds are expected to weaken through the day
   across the region, which will limit the overall fire weather
   potential despite receptive fuels. However, periods of patchy
   elevated conditions are possible during the 16-21 UTC period roughly
   across the Altus, OK to Watonga, OK region.

   ..Moore.. 09/27/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

   An amplified pattern aloft featuring a broad trough in the east, a
   large ridge over the central U.S., and a shortwave trough over the
   Northwest will be in place today. At the surface, a trough will
   develop in the lee of the Cascades while a surface high will build
   into the upper Midwest. The approach of Hurricane Ian along the
   western Florida coast will strengthen the surface pressure gradient
   for the central Gulf Coast states.

   ...South-central Oregon...
   Afternoon winds will reach 15-20 mph as the surface trough deepens
   in the Columbia Basin. Some increase in high cloud cover is possible
   and may impact RH reductions in parts of the region. However, at
   least some areas of 15-20% appear possible during the afternoon.

   ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
   The region will be situated in a dry, post-frontal airmass. The
   combinations of a building surface high to the north and the
   approach of Ian to the southeast should promote a modest increase in
   surface winds. In general, winds around 15 mph are expected with
   locally higher sustained speeds and gusts. Dry fuels and RH that
   will likely fall to near 25% or lower will support an increase in
   fire weather concerns during the afternoon.

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 44,442 4,508,642 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Albany, GA...Gulfport, MS...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   FNUS22 KWNS 270639

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z


   The upper-level pattern on Wednesday will generally be an
   eastward-shifted version of Tuesday. The Northwest trough will
   continue east as will the large ridge in the Plains and the
   weakening trough in the Northeast. Hurricane Ian will continue to
   near the western Florida coast as a stout surface high pushes
   farther into the Great Lakes region.

   ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
   The surface pressure gradient is expected to further increase from
   Tuesday. A few hours of winds around 15-20+ mph appear probable
   across parts of the region. With dry air remaining, RH could fall
   near 20-25% in some locations with other areas observing values near
   30%. Critical fire weather is expected, particularly near the coast.
   Further inland, elevated to locally critical conditions will occur.

   ...Southeast Oregon Vicinity...
   Continued progression of the trough will promote a similar setup to
   Tuesday. Winds may be slightly stronger, however, with broader
   coverage of winds closer to 20 mph. RH of 15-20% is expected.

   ...Central Plains...
   A surface low will develop in the lee of the Canadian Rockies while
   the surface high in the Midwest maintains intensity. Breezy
   southerly winds are possible from Nebraska into the Dakotas. With
   the cooler air moving in with the surface high and possible cloud
   cover, it is unclear how low RH will fall. This uncertainty is borne
   out in ensemble guidance as well. Farther west in southeast Wyoming,
   conditions will be much drier, but the pressure gradient will be
   weaker. No highlights will be added this outlook.

   ..Wendt.. 09/27/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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