Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191611

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1111 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z

   Only minor changes are needed based on morning observations and
   recent hi-res guidance. Surface obs from across the eastern CO
   plains show the gradual deepening of a surface low along with RH
   values falling into the 25-30% range under a weak downslope flow
   regime. Confidence remains high that this dry air mass with spread
   eastward through the day as winds increase in response to diurnal
   mixing and the continued, but modest, deepening of the low. Elevated
   conditions remain expected, and brief/localized critical conditions
   are possible across eastern CO. See the discussion below for
   additional details.

   ..Moore.. 10/19/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough now over Utah will continue eastward today.
   Strong mid-level winds will be present along the southern flank of
   this trough. At the surface, a cyclone will develop through the day
   in the central High Plains. As the cyclone moves eastward toward the
   central Plains by the end of the afternoon, a cold front will pass
   through the central High Plains and into the southern/central
   Plains.

   ...Parts of the southern/central High Plains...
   Gusty winds are possible early in the day across the region. The
   surface low may undergo slow intensification during the day and
   early afternoon, which would lead to some favorable overlap of
   strong winds along with minimal RH. Winds of 15-20 mph are quite
   likely. With the mid level jet aloft, some areas, particularly
   within the terrain passes, could see winds of 20-35 mph at least
   briefly. Downslope warming and drying will bring RH to near 10%
   locally with 15-20% more common. Elevated to locally critical fire
   weather is expected as the area with the driest fuels will likely
   see critical conditions briefly due to progression of the cold
   front.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191902

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest
   ensemble guidance continues to show low probability for sustained
   and/or widespread elevated conditions across the Southern Great
   Basin or southern High Plains where fuels are only marginally dry.

   ..Moore.. 10/19/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   The shortwave trough within the central Plains will move east into
   parts of the upper Midwest on Wednesday. Low-amplitude ridging aloft
   will develop across the West with the exception of a deamplifying
   shortwave trough moving through the Northwest. At the surface, a
   cold front will continue moving south and east. Cooler temperatures
   behind the front will elevate RH across most the Plains. Drier
   conditions are possible in the central Great Basin and the
   Southwest, but weak winds and poorly receptive fuels will keep fire
   weather concerns very low.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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