MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CST WED JAN 01 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY / SRN VT / SRN NH
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 020104Z - 020700Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN NY / SRN VT / SRN NH BEFORE CHANGING OVER
   TO SLEET AND THEN EVENTUALLY SNOW FROM NW-SE.  LIQUID
   PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS .05 TO .10"/HR ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LOCAL
   AMOUNTS OVER .15"/HR.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NRN CHESAPEAKE
   BAY...WITH UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY OVER
   SERN VA.  LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS -- AND WV LOOP CONFIRMS --
   THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD...AND
   SHOULD REACH A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY 02/06Z.
   
   BROAD SWATH OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES IN DEFORMATION ZONE
   NORTH OF UPPER SYSTEM FROM WRN NY EWD INTO SRN VT / SRN NH.
   PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY RAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PA AND SRN
   PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LOCATION
   OF THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   EVENTUALLY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC
   COAST...COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN SPREADING SEWD.  THIS
   SUGGESTS THAT A CHANGEOVER FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION
   WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR FROM NW TO SE -- INITIALLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY
   AND THEN SEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND 02/06Z.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/02/2003
   
   
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