MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CT RI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 031737Z - 032130Z
VERY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CT AND PERHAPS INTO NRN RI
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 21Z. THIS LIFT WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM BOTH
DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION. INCREASINGLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SUGGESTS A SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
ZONE SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE MESOSCALE FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS DUE TO
LATENT HEAT EFFECTS AND SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF CT AND PORTIONS OF RI.
..CARBIN.. 01/03/2003
41497271 41317360 41977356 42127150 41947125
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