MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0918 PM CST THU JAN 16 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...SRN DE...SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 170318Z - 170900Z
   
   CORRECTED SPELLING
   
   MDT TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN 04-06Z.  SNOW RATES
   NEAR 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.  POCKETS OF FZRA
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SERN VA.
   
   CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING DBZ OVER ERN NC AND SERN VA.
   VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS KEPT HOURLY PRECIPITATION RATES
   LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   UPSTREAM SHOW HOURLY LIQUID RATES EXCEEDING /0.10"/ PER HOUR.
   ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED
   BETWEEN 04-06Z...WITH VERY STRONG UVVS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT
   9Z.  PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW NORTH OF
   NORFOLK VA...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER EXTREME
   E-CENTRAL VA INTO THE CENTRAL DELMARVA PENINSULA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/17/2003
   
   
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