MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...E TX AND WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 220454Z - 220730Z
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS E TX AND WRN LA THROUGH AT LEAST 7Z. MOST INTENSE CELLS
MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR WW.
STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA/DESTABILIZATION -- AMIDST COLD CORE REGION
OF CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT -- YIELDS 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS LFK REGION.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ROOTED IN 700-850 MB LAYER BASED ON RUC/ETA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO
MAINTAIN CAPE ALOFT...AND FORCED ASCENT OCCURRING ATOP ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. 60-90 KT TOTAL SHEAR IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL STABILIZE FARTHER AS CAA DEEPENS POST-FRONTAL LAYER.
..EDWARDS.. 02/22/2003
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