MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E TX AND WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 220454Z - 220730Z
   
   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS E TX AND WRN LA THROUGH AT LEAST 7Z.  MOST INTENSE CELLS
   MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR WW.
   
   STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA/DESTABILIZATION -- AMIDST COLD CORE REGION
   OF CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT -- YIELDS 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS LFK REGION. 
   ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ROOTED IN 700-850 MB LAYER BASED ON RUC/ETA
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO
   MAINTAIN CAPE ALOFT...AND FORCED ASCENT OCCURRING ATOP ELEVATED
   FRONTAL SURFACE.  60-90 KT TOTAL SHEAR IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
   WILL STABILIZE FARTHER AS CAA DEEPENS POST-FRONTAL LAYER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/22/2003
   
   
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