MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 20...
   
   VALID 221833Z - 222030Z
   
   STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE STILL EVIDENT BENEATH INTENSE
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 
   STRONGEST 2 HOUR FALLS ARE SHIFTING OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
   WEST VIRGINIA ...BUT AXIS STILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
   TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ALL INDICATE
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
   23/00Z...THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW
   HOURS...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
   STRONGEST...ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE.
   
   INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS
   NORTHWEST GEORGIA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...WHERE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S AND CAPE IS IN
   EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS LARGE HAIL/GUSTY
   WIND...BUT HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN MORRISTOWN TN VAD WIND DATA STILL
   SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   
   ..KERR.. 02/22/2003
   
   
   28188275 28718226 29018190 29348156 29518121 
   
   27688043 27268063 26848100 26188173 
   
   36518592 36858537 36858405 36358351 35698388 35088429
   34508494 34488549 34618572 35698566