MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 AM CST TUE MAR 11 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 111117Z - 111415Z
   
   ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BETWEEN AVK AND P28 WILL MOVE NEWD AT
   20-25KT AND PROGRESS OVER SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
   REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
   SHOWERS THROUGH MID-MORNING. 
   
   AT 1115Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OK/KS
   BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION AND LEADING EDGE OF
   GULF MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING PRIMARILY IN THE 850-750MB LAYER.
   ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG IN THE
   AREA...AND COMBINED WITH UVV FROM WARM ADVECTION...SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 26-32F
   RANGE...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR LIGHT ICE
   ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS
   MORNING.  
   
   ..BANACOS.. 03/11/2003
   
   
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