MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0257
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 161859Z - 162100Z
   
   WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH.
   
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN
   NC WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.  THIS HAS LEAD TO SBCAPE
   VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 1700 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
   7.0C/KM.  THIS IS DUE TO MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NOW OVER N
   CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C.
   
   RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR OBSERVED T/TD SHOWS POTENTIAL
   FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND 30K WITH WET
   BULB ZERO LEVELS NEAR 8000K.  COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING POSES
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 03/16/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
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