MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEB...N CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 172124Z - 172330Z
RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE...BUT THREAT APPEARS OF SHORT
ENOUGH DURATION THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WHILE MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS STILL UPSTREAM OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...INITIAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVE...
MIGRATING OUT OF WESTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH...APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTING ONGOING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON NARROW LOW-LEVEL
JET AHEAD JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AXIS
OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
1000 J/KG NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL KS INTO THE ALLIANCE NEB AREA.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BEFORE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AWAY FROM BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
..KERR.. 03/17/2003
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...GID...LBF...
31659842 32079848 32849867 33919870 34479798 34209706
33059665 31799670 31499754
42650276 42940196 42099952 40919832 39559866 40099971
41100088 41820258
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