MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 151953Z - 152300Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS E/W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. TEMPERATURES S OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE
VERY WARM IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S F. 12Z GRB
RAOB SHOWED WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE UP TO NEAR 700 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHARPENS AND UVVS INCREASE ALONG IT. GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS
ORIENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAIL...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ONCE STORMS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COLD POOL.
..JEWELL.. 04/15/2003
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...
43738770 43888912 44339084 44629118 45339048 45258867
44798723
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