MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN AND EXTREME
   W-CENTRAL OK...S-CENTRAL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 272242Z - 280115Z
   
   ALTHOUGH CAPPING REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG...A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
   BEFORE 01Z BETWEEN THE CSM-GAG AREA AND THE ICT AREA.  PROBABILITY
   OF FRONTAL INITIATION BEFORE SUNSET IS LOW...BUT WORTH MENTION...AND
   OTHER TSTMS MAY FORM FROM ACCAS TOWERS NOW W OF WRN OK DRYLINE.  ANY
   SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  THREAT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND
   ISOLATED FOR WW ATTM...BUT WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   21-22Z SFC MESOANALYSES REVEAL WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY SFC FRONT --
   FROM SFC LOW OVER SERN TX PANHANDLE APPROXIMATELY 30 NNW CDS...NEWD
   THROUGH STREAMLINE CYCLONES INVOF GAG AND OVER ALFALFA COUNTY
   OK...TO INVOF ICT...EMP...OJC.	THERMAL AND MOISTURE MAX ARE EACH
   ANALYZED OVER NRN OK INVOF END...E OF DRYLINE WHICH EXTENDS PARALLEL
   TO AND ROUGHLY 30 NM E OF TX/OK BORDER IN THIS AREA.  EXPECT DRYLINE
   TO RETREAT WWD SOMEWHAT OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS CURRENTLY STRONG
   VERTICAL MIXING WEAKENS...SPREADING MOIST SECTOR WWD OVER AND
   PERHAPS 20-30 NM W OF BORDER.  MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN
   MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONTAL SEGMENT BETWEEN DRYLINE AND ICT...INDICATING
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CONVECTIVE PLUMES TO BREACH CINH ESTIMATED
   50-100 J/KG.  ADDITIONALLY...HIGH--BASED CONVECTION EVIDENT OVER
   CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE -- BEHIND DRYLINE...MAY REACH RETROGRADING
   MOIST SECTOR AND INTENSIFY INTO TSTMS. VCI PROFILER -- LOCATED
   ALMOST DIRECTLY ALONG FRONT -- INDICATES WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
   SPEED SHEAR..BUT SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER VEERING...WHICH IS
   EVIDENT JUST N OF FRONT NEWD INTO KS WHERE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   RELATIVELY UNCLOUDED AIR MASS HAS HEATED/DESTABILIZED.	MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000
   J/KG IN POTENTIAL INFLOW SECTOR ACROSS WRN/NRN OK.  
   
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   34340074 35810085 38669677 37069685