MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WRN PA...AND NERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 011641Z - 011915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS WRN NY...NWRN/WRN
   PA...AND NERN OH BETWEEN 17-20Z. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   AT 1630Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SWRN ONTARIO SWWD
   ACROSS NWRN OH AND IND. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...STRONG SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH 40-50KT
   WINDS EVIDENT ON VAD PROFILES AT CLE AND BUF. INSOLATION COMBINED
   WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
   WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SCATTERED SURFACE BASED STORMS
   WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PERHAPS ALONG
   LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OFF LAKE ERIE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH BOW FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING
   WIND. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND WBZ HEIGHTS
   OF 8-9 KFT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH
   ROTATING STORMS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/01/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   41818062 41278146 40338029 40547883 41417690 42317539
   43537464 44037471 44027582 42827873