MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN AR / EXTREME S CENTRAL AND SERN
   MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 020627Z - 020830Z
   
   SCATTERED / SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS N CENTRAL / NERN AR AND ADJACENT S CENTRAL / SERN MO.
    MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
   BUT LIMITED THREAT SUGGESTS WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW ACROSS W CENTRAL AR...WITH 
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NERN AR INTO SERN MO / SRN IL. 
   MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ABOVE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS
   ACROSS THE AREA...AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG NRN FRINGE OF SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. 
   WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND 30 TO 40 KTS MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SHEAR EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...WEAK
   FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO
   WLY WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THREAT LIMITED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/02/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
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