MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX...AND SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 031842Z - 032115Z
   
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION SEWD INTO NWRN TX IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE 03/20-04/00Z PERIOD.
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WOULD LIKELY NECESSITATE A
   TORNADO WATCH IF STORMS CAN IN FACT FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
   EVENING.
   
   PARTIAL CLEARING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD ACROSS NWRN TX...THE ERN
   TX PANHANDLE...AND SWRN OK IS RESULTING IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
   AT 18Z.SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND AMPLE INSOLATION HAVE
   CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN TX
   BASED ON 18Z ANALYSES. A SIGNIFICANT CAP /CIN -100 TO -150 J/KG/
   REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK WHERE
   CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CIN HAS LESSENED TO -25 TO -50 J/KG IN THE
   REGION BOUNDED BY SPS-CDS-ABI.
   
   ALOFT...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON WV IMAGERY IS A CONCERN FOR
   INITIATION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER /21-00Z/ IN RESPONSE TO A 80-90KT
   500MB JET MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. DEEP-LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR
   OF 50-55KT IS PRESENT ON PROFILER DATA AT TCU AND WSM WHICH SHOULD
   OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AN ANTICIPATED SHARPENING OF THE DRYLINE
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...AND MORE FAVORABLE
   CONDITIONS ALOFT SUGGEST POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE STORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STORMS CONTINUING EWD INTO SWRN OK
   DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR AND RICH BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE
   TORNADOES. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 05/03/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   34539875 34979911 36820035 36930103 36930192 36090191
   35200169 34590150 33960120 33150094 32580039 32349898
   32739829 32999786 33399780 33869812