MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL-NWRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 061949Z - 062145Z
ISOLATED STRONG CELLS WERE DEVELOPING IN NWRN PA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD. CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. WW MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS PA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
LAKE BREEZE FRONT OFF OF LAKE ERIE WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR AKRON OH
EXTENDING NE TO NEAR JAMESTOWN PA. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP INITIATE NEW CELLS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. MLCAPE WAS MARGINAL...HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND SFC TEMPS AROUND 70 F HAVE RESULTED IN SBCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED SOME OVER WRN PA
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -16 C SHOULD MAKE LARGE
HAIL A THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 05/06/2003
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PBZ...
41507967 41997921 41707689 40727728 40847958
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