MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS/SWRN TN/NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 171042Z - 171145Z
   
   AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER NRN MS THROUGH
   12-13Z.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR NRN MS/SWRN TN/NWRN AL IN THE NEXT
   2-3 HOURS. 
   
   10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL-SERN AR...
   WITH A SECOND LOW OVER FAR WRN KY.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM
   THE AR LOW INTO NRN MS.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BOW ECHO HAS
   DEVELOPED OVER NRN MS...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...DURING THE LAST
   HOUR.  ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE THE AIR MASS IS
   BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE NWD OVER FAR NRN MS AS A SWLY LLJ ADVECTS
   RICH MOISTURE NNEWD...THIS BOW ECHO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED 
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   STRONG WINDS THAT CAN REACH THE SURFACE....THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   06Z RUC/00Z ETAKF SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD BY MID-MORNING TO
   THE MS/SWRN TN BORDER...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
   MS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SURFACE BASED AS THEY REACH NRN
   MS LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/17/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
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