MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0716 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AL/SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 407...
   
   VALID 180016Z - 180215Z
   
   LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER ERN MS/WRN AL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
    BE SUSTAINED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SRN AND CNTRL AL WILL BEGIN
   TO BE AFFECTED AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS BOTH WITHIN AND
   WITH CELLS AHEAD OF THIS LINE. DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT IS
   ALSO ANTICIPATED.
   
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN MS/WRN AL EAST OF A
   NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER-LOW CENTER ACROSS NW MS. STRONG CONVERGENCE
   ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F IS SUSTAINING THE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AROUND 40-45 KT AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
   ROTATING STORMS ESPECIALLY IN LOCALLY SFC BACKED WINDS JUST AHEAD OF
   THE SFC TROUGH. SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   ISOLATED TORNADOES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR BOWING
   SEGMENTS IN THE LINE WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES. 
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/18/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
   
   31558865 32378824 33038783 33668741 34158688 34058624
   33588583 32818609 32148652 31238719 31028815