MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL/NERN ORE...SRN WA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 241920Z - 242115Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
   ISSUANCE.
   
   RECENT WV IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH AND AN
   ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE HEADED NEWD OFFSHORE OF ORE/WA IN THE NERN
   PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
   TRANSLATE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...SOME ASSOCIATED UVM WILL COMBINE
   WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO YIELD SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ACCAS DECK AHEAD OF MAIN 
   CLOUD BAND MOVING NWD INTO SRN WA AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
   CONTINUES. 100MB MEAN MIXED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 500 J/KG 
   IN A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS FROM AROUND THE LAKE/HARNEY COUNTY REGION NWD
   TO AROUND PDT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN FROM THE UPPER 70S
   INTO THE MID 80S AMIDST BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM AROUND
   50 TO THE MID-UPPER 50S. 
   
   MOST RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
   AROUND REDMOND AS LARGER SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE
   REGION. EXPECT GRADUAL BUT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS
   LIKELY FROM AROUND 20-22Z. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG DAMAGING
   WINDS WITH ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HAIL. RECENT PDT VAD PROFILE
   INDICATES 20KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...BUT THESE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE
   TO BETWEEN 30-40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING TO BETTER STORM
   ORGANIZATION IN A SSW-NNE FASHION WITH LIKELY STORM MOTIONS AROUND
   225-230 DEGREES AT 15-20 KTS.
   
   ..NADEN.. 05/24/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...
   
   43481888 43101946 42972035 43162125 43972163 44852102
   45632095 46052067 46212016 46151889 46141805 45911740
   44331784 43601863