MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...
   
   VALID 252313Z - 260045Z
   
   STRONG TO INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND APPEARS TO
   BE DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS LAKE AND FLATHEAD COUNTIES OF NW MT ATTM
   AND MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS STORMS MOVES TOWARD AXIS OF GREATER
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ SITUATED ACROSS MISSOULA...
   POWELL...AND ERN FLATHEAD COUNTIES. LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL
   ZONE...AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE BOWS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN
   ADDITION...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COUPLED WITH LOW WBZ
   LEVELS INDICATE A CONTINUING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   MORE ISOLD STORMS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN LEE/THERMAL TROUGH EAST OF
   THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WAS OVER
   PONDERA/TOOLE COUNTIES AND APPEARS TO HAVE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
   DESPITE WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS PARTICULAR CELL WAS MOVING
   NEWD AT ABOUT 20KT AND TFX VWP DATA SUGGESTS STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT SOURCE REGION CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED
   HODOGRAPHS INDICATIVE OF HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM
   ROTATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/25/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...
   
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