MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MN...NWRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...
VALID 300623Z - 300730Z
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NOSE OF MIDLEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY.
MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKLY RESPONDED WITH 700-500 MB FLOW BACKING JUST
AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL JETLET. THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS
SHIFTING ESEWD INTO ECNTRL MN AND NWRN WI AND IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS. MUCAPE VALUES ARE RATHER WEAK AND ASIDE
FROM AN ISOLD NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORT 9 NW BEMIDJI AROUND 0442
UTC...TSTMS HAVE BEEN SUBSEVERE. UNLESS AN UPSWING IN ACTIVITY
OCCURS...WS 439 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
..RACY.. 05/30/2003
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
45609504 48979723 48979303 45599106 45619499
|