MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 301920Z - 302145Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED
HAIL.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N
CENTRAL CO EXTENDING SEWD ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO WRN KS.
MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
F ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WERE PRODUCING MLCAPES ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE..FROM LARAMIE COUNTY WY SWD THROUGH CO. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WAS COMMENCING ALONG THE ERN END OF THE PALMER DIVIDE
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY CO...AS WELL AS OVER EXTREME NWRN KS. CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR RATHER SHORT LIVED STORMS...WITH LARGE T/TD
SPREADS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER FAVORING STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT WIND PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WITH TIME...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG COLD FRONT INCREASES UPSLOPE COMPONENT...BENEATH 15-25 KT MID
LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
..JEWELL.. 05/30/2003
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
39960151 39750116 39240078 38970117 38840175 39020287
39070381 39230525 40070534 40820512 41640519 41080365
40660270 40340197
|