MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NERN CO...NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 301920Z - 302145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.  A FEW STORMS
   MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED
   HAIL.
   
   19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N
   CENTRAL CO EXTENDING SEWD ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND INTO WRN KS. 
   MODIFIED OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH
   LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING.  DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
   F ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES WERE PRODUCING MLCAPES ON THE
   ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. 
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
   RANGE..FROM LARAMIE COUNTY WY SWD THROUGH CO.  ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT WAS COMMENCING ALONG THE ERN END OF THE PALMER DIVIDE
   OVER LINCOLN COUNTY CO...AS WELL AS OVER EXTREME NWRN KS.  CURRENT
   ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR RATHER SHORT LIVED STORMS...WITH LARGE T/TD
   SPREADS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER FAVORING STRONG WINDS.  ALTHOUGH
   CURRENT WIND PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...SHEAR PROFILES
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WITH TIME...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
   ALONG COLD FRONT INCREASES UPSLOPE COMPONENT...BENEATH 15-25 KT MID
   LEVEL FLOW.  THEREFORE...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/30/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   39960151 39750116 39240078 38970117 38840175 39020287
   39070381 39230525 40070534 40820512 41640519 41080365
   40660270 40340197