MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB...WRN KS...ERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 011746Z - 011945Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS EARLY AS 20Z.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING FOCUSED NEAR
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS WARMING THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER
80S...AND BECOMING WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MEAN MIXED LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ...ASSOCIATED WITH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW
FIELD AHEAD OF SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN MOST
VIGOROUS STORMS. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...BEFORE
ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..KERR.. 06/01/2003
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
39560233 40460219 40580107 40090041 39110105 38320108
37700143 37310197 38340225
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