MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...W AND NW TX THROUGH THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455...456...
VALID 012307Z - 020100Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WWS 455 AND 456. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH STORMS SPREADING ESEWD OUT OF THE TX
PANHANDLE.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS W AND NW TX S OF A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA WITH MLCAPES TO 3000
J/KG. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR ABILENE IS
DEVELOPING E OF SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX AND IS IN RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED MICRO
BURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING SLOWLY
EWD AS NEW CELLS INITIATE ALONG OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. STORMS
FARTHER NW ACROSS THE S TX PANHANDLE AND INTO W TX ARE IN A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FLOW REGIME AND HAVE BETTER LINEAR ORGANIZATION. THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ESEWD NEXT FEW HOURS SUPPORTED BY MOIST LOW
LEVEL INFLOW AND WNWLY MID/UPPER FLOW.
..DIAL.. 06/01/2003
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
34650004 33399957 32309931 31129934 30610159 30320314
31550322 33060305 34230275 34620183
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