MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/SERN KS/SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461...
   
   VALID 020753Z - 021000Z
   
   AREAS OF ERN KS/WRN MO SHOULD EXPERIENCE INCREASING STRONG TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 11 UTC. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ONLY POSE A
   MARGINAL HAIL THREAT BUT IF CONFIDENCE IN GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OR
   STORM INTENSITY INCREASES...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 12 UTC.
   
   MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND
   DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ON THE OK/KS BORDER SHOULD SUSTAIN MCS
   DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN OK NEWD EARLY TODAY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
   DEPICTED SFC LOW CIRCULATION ACROSS NWRN OK WITH WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SEWD INTO SERN OK AND OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT
   ACROSS CNTRL OK. 30-35 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG MULTICELLULAR
   CONVECTION ACROSS ERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO AND NWRN AR EARLY TODAY.
   WHILE A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS THROUGH 11 UTC...A GREATER THREAT MAY BE THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS UPDRAFT PROPAGATION INTO THE GRADUALLY
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW RESULTS IN REPEAT DEEP CONVECTION
   OVER SOME AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CURRENTLY QUITE WEAK...IS FCST
   TO INCREASE THROUGH 11 UTC ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO. THIS MAY PROMOTE
   POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY THROUGH
   THAT TIME. THUS...THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE COVERED BY A NEW WATCH
   IF THIS TREND DEVELOPS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
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