MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 040634Z - 040830Z
   
   TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   FROM SERN CO AND NERN NM SEWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS. LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   RADAR ECHOES WERE EXPANDING ALONG/WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT FROM AMA AREA NWWD TO NERN NM. IN ADDITION... A SMALL MCS
   WAS CONTINUING TO TRACK SEWD FROM EXTREME SERN CO EARLY TODAY. ALL
   OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SLOWLY AS LOW LEVEL
   UPSLOPE FLOW AND NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHEN
   WITHIN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF CNTRL PLAINS UPPER JET STREAK.
   
   AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...EXPECT
   STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AND PERHAPS ENHANCED AS THE UPPER FORCING
   ACTS ON MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/
   SITUATED ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   APPROACHING 9C/KM COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AROUND 50KT SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IF ACTIVITY MERGES AND FURTHER ORGANIZES INTO
   LARGER SCALE MCS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...A WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/04/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   33680132 34660305 36400371 37490251 37700202 36970074
   36460023 34460006