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Mesoscale Discussion 1316
MD 1316 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-CENTRAL MS/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 111421Z - 111515Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER NRN
   MS/NWRN AL AND ACROSS WRN-MIDDLE TN...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL.
   
   VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NERN LA INTO SWRN
   MS FROM NEAR EFS-HKS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THESE
   STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF DEEP
   MOIST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   AR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH
   MCV OVER SERN AR.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NERN LA INTO SWRN MS
   SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THE
   PRIMARY THREAT. 
   
   A GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS NWD INTO CENTRAL-NRN MS AND
   EVENTUALLY ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS
   FROM JAN TO BNA SHOW CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL
   SURFACE HEATING...WITH STORMS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
   LOWER 80S. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT OF SWLY
   500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AND
   DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS MOVING
   ACROSS KY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/11/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   34319071 35718937 35688726 34258740 32138855 31879103 
   
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