MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-CENTRAL MS/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 111421Z - 111515Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING OVER NRN
MS/NWRN AL AND ACROSS WRN-MIDDLE TN...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.
VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NERN LA INTO SWRN
MS FROM NEAR EFS-HKS...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THESE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF DEEP
MOIST CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
AR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH
MCV OVER SERN AR. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NERN LA INTO SWRN MS
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
A GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS NWD INTO CENTRAL-NRN MS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM JAN TO BNA SHOW CAP WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING...WITH STORMS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT OF SWLY
500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AND
DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS MOVING
ACROSS KY.
..PETERS.. 06/11/2003
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
34319071 35718937 35688726 34258740 32138855 31879103
|