MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W/CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 533...
   
   VALID 131956Z - 132200Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA...
   
   ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW 533 IS EXTREMELY
   UNSTABLE...WITH LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS FIELDS SBCAPES
   AROUND 6000 J/KG. THIS TREMENDOUS INSTABILITY WITH NO CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION SUGGESTS STORMS WILL FORM ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER.
   SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN
   EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. 
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL FORM REPEATEDLY ACROSS
   THE SAME AREAS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RADAR ESTIMATES FROM
   THE KSJT / SAN ANGELO / RADAR SHOW 3 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
   RANGING FROM 4-6 INCHES...PARTICULARLY OVER NOLAN...TAYLOR AND
   CALLAHAN COUNTIES WHERE A LOCAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING
   REDEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/13/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
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