MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 566...
   
   VALID 231943Z - 232145Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WEST/NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS.
   
   DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...ENHANCED BY UPPER JET STREAK
   MIGRATING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.  INITIAL CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS SUPPORTED BY UPPER
   FORCING WILL APPROACH THE BRAINERD AREA BY 21Z.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   SLOWLY WEAKEN AS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTHWEST
   CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF
   ALEXANDRIA INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS.  MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
   LARGE HAIL.  DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...
   RELATIVELY DRY AIR EVIDENT IN 18Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING PROVIDES
   POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DOWNBURSTS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE
   COLD POOLS/ASSOCIATED GUST FRONTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/23/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
   
   46459493 46619443 46169363 45809326 45229319 44689409
   44699537 45229542 45819485