MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 251650Z - 251845Z
WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
CONVECTION HAS RE-INTENSIFIED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SOUTHEAST
OF LA CROSSE WI AND DES MOINES IOWA...SUPPORTED BY LIFT OF
SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS WHICH HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...
WHICH MAY SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THOUGH VEERED FLOW AHEAD
OF LINE IS MINIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 20 TO 30 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 20/21Z.
..KERR.. 06/25/2003
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
42459172 43129050 43658967 43998884 43478808 42978792
42338814 41588946 40669097 40599162 40759294 41199315
41609234
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