MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW-CNTRL MO/NW AR/ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...
   
   VALID 260353Z - 260530Z
   
   LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING SEWD INTO SRN MO/NWRN AR/SERN OK
   WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   VERY ISOLATED AND A NEW WATCH E OF WW 594 IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD AN INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTED
   FROM ERN TX NEWD INTO CNTRL AR AND SERN MO. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   AHEAD OF THE STORMS WAS HIGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S F
   RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS WILL LIKELY
   FUEL THE MCS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
   WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
   REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS PRESENT AND
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH WITH VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCHES
   SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF COLD POOLS
   CAN BE GENERATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/26/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   35799521 36329473 36909424 37419372 37879324 38229277
   38209210 38119139 37059237 35849353 35319410 35299486
   35399546