MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...SRN LH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 291847Z - 292045Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS REGION THROUGH ABOUT
   21Z...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND.  ACTIVITY WILL THEM MOVE EWD INTO SWRN ONT.
   
   CONVECTION OVER ST CLAIR/WASHTENAW/LENAWEE COUNTIES MAY INTENSIFY TO
   SEVERE LEVELS BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA...BUT WILL BE OUT OF AREA BY
   ABOUT 20Z.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM
   INDIANA/OH/MI BORDER JUNCTION NNEWD TOWARD MBS REGION. SFC ANALYSIS
   INDICATES DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM THUMB AREA WSWWD
   TOWARD MKG...AND GREATEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
   ALONG AND S OF THAT FRONT.
     
   AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS SERN LOWER MI WITH SFC
   TEMPS RISING INTO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F NEXT 1-2 HOURS...DEW POINTS
   LOW-MID 60S F. VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH
   50-60 KT FLOW IN 5-6 KM LAYER -- AS EVIDENT IN DTX VWP --
   CONTRIBUTING TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AMIDST NEARLY UNDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILE.  THOUGH CAPPING IS ALMOST GONE OVER MUCH OF
   AREA...WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE MAY PREVENT DENSE CLUSTER OR LINE OF
   CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING SOON...KEEPING CELLS RATHER DISCRETE AND
   AIDING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
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