MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1205 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 031705Z - 031930Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
   
   WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
   MIGRATING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE
   MICHIGAN.  LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE TRAILING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
   SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MADISON AND
   MILWAUKEE AREAS.  
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS MOIST WITH DEW
   POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F...AND DEEPENING MOIST LAYER IS
   PROGGED ON 20 TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEXT FEW
   HOURS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...MEAN MIXED
   LAYER CAPE APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG BY THE
   18-20Z TIME FRAME.   THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...ENHANCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH
   WILL BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AS BELT OF MODERATE
   NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
   EASTERN PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/03/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
   
   43699057 44068969 44228866 44238809 44108725 43248761
   42868773 42708887 42689023 42989071