MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739...
   
   VALID 132353Z - 140200Z
   
   RADAR SHOWS ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL ND WITH GUST
   FRONT WRAPPING AROUND INTO MISO LOW IN ERN MCLEAN
   COUNTY...INDICATING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
   UPDRAFT BASE.  BACKING SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN ND ARE HELPING TO
   PRODUCE 0-1 SRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 M2/S2.  COMBINATION
   OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR E OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ALONG
   WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES SUGGEST CONTINUED THREAT
   OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY IF GUST
   FRONT SURGES AND UNDER CUTS UPDRAFT BASE.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST COMMON SEVERE
   WEATHER TYPE OVER THE WW.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/13/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46410183 48480093 48869721 46319685 46019978