MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA/SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 221959Z - 222200Z
LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS GA AND WRN SC SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED E
OF WW 798 AND WW 800 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS EXISTS FROM
SRN GA NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SC. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE MOIST AXIS RESULTING IN MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG A LARGE COLD
POOL WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO
THE COASTAL REGIONS OF GA AND SC. LOCALIZED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
20 TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXISTING
BELOW 700 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE COLD POOL WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SC INTO SRN
AND CNTRL GA.
..BROYLES.. 07/22/2003
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
31788410 33238283 34828246 35098132 34658051 33008087
31578193 31448300
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