MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/FAR NERN SD/WRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 310105Z - 310300Z
   
   ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN ND
   AND WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   HAIL. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW ATTM.
   
   ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN ND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
   WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTING AHEAD OF THE
   CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN INTENSE AS LIFT
   INCREASES ALONG THE SW EDGE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SERN ND WITH
   ABOUT 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
   SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
   HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14C.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/31/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46299824 46899716 46439627 45699537 45039635 45709770