MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SAT AUG 02 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 022015Z - 022215Z
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE QUINCY IL
AREA INTO THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY MO. AIR MASS HAS WARMED INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...
AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...NEW INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP/BUILD WEST SOUTHWESTWARD FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR
KIRKSVILLE MO INTO AREAS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND PROGGED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY
03/00Z. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG FRONT...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SPEED MAXIMUM...WILL BE SUFFICIENT SUPERCELLS AND ENHANCED THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS...SPREADING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
..KERR.. 08/02/2003
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
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