MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS/WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 052019Z - 052215Z
   
   DEVELOPING TSTMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT. WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   AT 20Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
   A TSTM DEVELOPING OVER CLARK COUNTY IN SWRN KS. THIS STORM IS
   DEVELOPING IN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND INVOF A WEAK ENE-WSW
   BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO THE ERN OK PNHDL. HERE...
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 100F WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500
   J/KG. VICI OK/HAVILAND KS PROFILERS INDICATE LARGELY NLY FLOW
   THROUGH THE LOWEST 5KM WITH LITTLE SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THIS LAYER.
   NONETHELESS...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND LARGE
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
   
   CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG EXPANDING COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT SUBSEQUENT
   DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COLLAPSES AND
   EFFECTIVELY STABILIZES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/05/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
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