MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA THROUGH NC AND NWRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 866...
VALID 172225Z - 180030Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICRO BURSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MID/UPPER DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF VA AND INTO NRN NC.
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH INTO ERN KY. AT THE SURFACE...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EXIST IN WARM SECTOR S OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN
VA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXIST ON SRN
PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS VA INTO NRN NC.
HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT WARM WITH
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS IS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
OVERALL HAIL/SEVERE POTENTIAL. LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL DRYING
SPREADING SEWD THROUGH SRN VA INTO NRN NC MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WET MICRO BURSTS AS CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOP
SEWD NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE N
ACROSS VA AS DEEPER DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS SWD.
..DIAL.. 08/17/2003
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
36507582 35787564 35507772 35097954 34738119 34498176
35348183 36028180 36728178 37098074 37327961 37657864
37567733 37117636
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