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Mesoscale Discussion 2252
MD 2252 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN WI AND SWRN MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 252343Z - 260145Z
   
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SRN WI
   DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH STORM MOTIONS ESEWD AT 30-35KT
   TAKING ACTIVITY INTO SWRN MI WITH TIME THIS EVENING.  A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
   AREA.
   
   AT 2320Z AN E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE
   OUTFLOW...EXTENDED ALONG THE FAR SRN COUNTIES OF WI. THIS BOUNDARY
   SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED 
   PRODUCTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR FROM PRECIPITATION BAND FROM VOK TO 40
   S MTW.
   
   VAD WIND PROFILE AT DVN INDICATES LOW-LEVEL /0-1KM/ SWLY FLOW AROUND
   20 KT THAT WILL ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL
   POSITION IN SRN WI. IN ADDITION...CLOUD/PRECIP BAND ORIENTED FROM
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL WI IS ASSOCIATED WITH PLUME OF
   STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...AROUND 7.5 C/KM BASED ON MODEL
   SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z ETA. NARROW CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SOUTH
   OF CLOUD BAND AND NORTH OF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH
   100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
   ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS DEVELOPING
   ACROSS NERN IA OR SRN WI WOULD TRACK ESEWD INTO SWRN MI...WHERE
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUSTAIN T-STORMS AND SEVERE THREAT.
   
   
   SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR /AROUND 40KTS/ EXISTS FOR AN ORGANIZED
   /SUSTAINED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
   THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN NLY SURFACE WINDS AND SHALLOW COLD
   ADVECTION IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN WI.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 08/25/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   43389041 43608962 43398803 43228638 42898488 41938449
   41928638 42178794 42199011 42649032 
   
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