Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
 
   

Search SPC
 

Mesoscale Discussion 2470
MD 2470 graphic
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CST WED OCT 29 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 290701Z - 290930Z
   
   ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST FLORIDA NEXT FEW
   HOURS.
   
   VIGOROUS...DISCRETE CELLS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT ROTATION CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP IN VERY MOIST POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER
   70S.  MID-LEVEL CAP HAS TENDED TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...ON TAIL END OF
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...ADDITIONAL
   NEW CELLS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR COASTAL AREAS FROM PALM BEACH THROUGH MIAMI INTO
   THE UPPER KEYS WILL PROVIDE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...IN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  GIVEN
   WARM...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER...MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WITH SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   STRONGER ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS OFF COASTAL WATERS
   AHEAD OF UPSTREAM WIND SHIFT BY THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/29/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...
   
   24888069 25298054 25698051 26078032 26508021 26718014
   26818003 
   
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home