MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0901 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY / CENTRAL PA / WRN MD / ERN WV PANHANDLE /
   NRN VA...
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 271501Z - 271900Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
   OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES WARMING SLOWLY ACROSS
   WESTERN PA AND MUCH OF WV WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN
   OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW NOW INDICATED NEAR THE WRN END
   OF LAKE ERIE.  MEANWHILE...COLD AIR DAMMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
   QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
   
   LARGE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN -- WITH EMBEDDED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS -- CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR RISE
   SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN PA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
   REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF PA / ALLEGANY
   MOUNTAINS OF NY EWD -- PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FRONT.  
   
   
   WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
   SPREADING ACROSS VERY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS...EXPECT A SEVERAL-HOUR
   PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN.  RAINFALL RATES
   MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1/4 INCH PER HOUR...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
   HOUR IN GENERAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   43247890 43327803 42647736 41127680 40347662 39187680
   38377817 38637933 40397911 41837947