MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0428 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SERN NY INCLUDING WRN LONG ISLAND...MUCH
   OF NJ...EXTREME NRN DE...WRN CT...NERN CORNER OF MD
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 272228Z - 280330Z
   
   SNOW RATES OF AT LEAST 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
   FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NY AND CT.  LOCAL RATES OF 2 IN/HR ARE MOST
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM EAST CENTRAL PA ACROSS NRN NJ INTO SRN NY AND
   WRN LONG ISLAND.
   
   PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION BAND...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.13 INCHES HAVE
   BEEN REPORTED OVER CENTRAL PA. THESE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   WITH TIME AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND LARGE SCALE VERTICAL
   MOTION FIELDS INCREASE.  PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS FREEZING
   RAIN OR SLEET OVER SERN PA...NJ...AND MD/DE...BUT WILL QUICKLY
   CHANGE OVER ALL SNOW AS COLD ADVECTION ERODES WARM LAYER NEAR 850
   MB.  RUC AND ETA MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE
   CENTROID OF HEAVIEST QPF FROM E-CENTRAL PA INTO THE NYC AFTER 03Z.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 01/27/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   41467696 42067637 42187418 41597319 40647312 40087385
   39457510 39787625