MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0952 AM CST THU FEB 05 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN/CNTRL MS....WRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 5...
   
   VALID 051552Z - 051745Z
   
   SLOW MOVING AND INTENSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS SRN MS AND SERN LA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
   AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TRAINING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NEW WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN LA/SERN MS...AND PERHAPS WRN AL PRIOR TO 18Z/NOON
   CST.
   
   FRONT WAS ALIGNED WITHIN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FROM SE OF LCH TO
   NEAR JAN AT 15Z. SEVERAL SMALL SCALE FRONTAL WAVES ARE EVIDENT ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY WITH ONE TO THE NE OF LCH AND ANOTHER NEAR THE INVERTED
   TROUGH APEX NORTH OF JAN. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF FORCING WILL
   REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
   SUFFICIENTLY FORCED SLAB ASCENT...WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED
   INVERSION...AND STRONG SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE WIND AND ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM
   SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THIS POTENTIAL IS PROBABLY GREATEST FROM EAST-CNTRL MS SWD
   ACROSS SERN LA.
   
   IN ADDITION...ALIGNMENT OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE DEEP
   SWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW...AND INTENSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...SUGGEST THAT TRAINING CONVECTION
   AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS
   LA AND MS THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAINFALL RATES IN SOME LOCATIONS
   APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 02/05/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   29519094 29719231 31369048 32458895 32348795 31098802
   30258852