MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 AM CST MON MAR 01 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN IA / NERN MO / W CENTRAL AND NWRN
   IL / SRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 011606Z - 011730Z
   
   LINE OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING ATTM SW OF DSM NEAR WEAK SURFACE WARM
   FRONT / JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTER.  CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...WITH WW LIKELY REQUIRED BY 01/17Z
   
   CONTINUED HEATING WITHIN DRY SLOT ACROSS NERN MO / ERN IA / W
   CENTRAL AND NWRN IL COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER
   LOW WILL ALLOW CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION... WITH AOB 500
   J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE
   LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700 TO 500 MB
   LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED BUT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  
   
   STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD JUST AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   COLD /-24 TO -26C/ MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT LARGE HAIL
   WITHIN LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...STRONG WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...FAIRLY LOW CLOUD BASES WITHIN RELATIVELY COOL
   / MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY AS AIRMASS
   DESTABILIZES EWD INTO CENTRAL AND NRN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/01/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
   
   43199319 43499092 43168898 40348886 39459162 41349319
   42549482