MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0841 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH EXTREME SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 080241Z - 080445Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS STORMS
   MOVE TOWARD THE NC AND VA COASTS NEXT COUPLE HOURS. REMAINING
   ONSHORE THREAT IS LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME...THEREFORE A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   STRONG ASCENT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
   EXIT REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION
   ALONG AND JUST E OF COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN VA SWWD THROUGH
   ERN NC. HOWEVER...THIS INSTABILITY IS ROOTED ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE
   LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S...
   SUGGESTING THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED. DEPTH OF THE STABLE LAYER
   APPEARS RATHER SHALLOW AND SUFFICIENT DRY AND AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES
   EXIST ABOVE THIS LAYER TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND REACHING THE
   SURFACE. WLY LOW LEVEL JET PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE WILL STRENGTHEN
   FURTHER INTO THE EVENING AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE. THIS
   WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF STABLE LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND INTERCEPTS MOIST AXIS
   OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/08/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
   
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