MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CST SUN MAR 14 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 141807Z - 142030Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   ACROSS WRN AND SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
   COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IF COVERAGE AND
   DURATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTM THREAT BECOMES CLEARER IN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY
   AND THE NRN HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LARGE DISORGANIZED MCS OVER ERN TX TRAILS
   WNWWD OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. MODEST INSOLATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED
   AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN A SLOW INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WRN AND SRN TX THROUGH THE MORNING AS A BROAD MID/UPPER
   LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADS ENEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY. EXPECT WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE PASSING MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE...COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
   WEAK CAPPING...TO PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS...WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...DO SHOW SUFFICIENT VEERING AND SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER
   FOR AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS...AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL. LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ LEVELS INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY
   THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/14/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...MAF...
   
   28879992 29900165 30520331 31510319 31449939 29979831
   29619752 29629710 29539665 29079648 28339746 27489766
   27019804 26949847 26939901 28799990