MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 AM CST SAT MAR 20 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN IL...WRN KY...SERN MO...NWRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 201520Z - 201645Z
   
   ...CONVECTION WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  SOME
   HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...
   
   WLY LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT APPEARS
   TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES
   FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL.  12Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WITHIN THE SOURCE
   REGION INDICATE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES...850-500MB ON THE ORDER OF
   7-8C/KM...FOR ROBUST CONVECTION.  LIFTING A PARCEL NEAR 850MB YIELDS
   ROUGHLY 2000J/KG ACROSS UPSHEAR SIDE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY.  IT
   APPEARS SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR AT LEAST
   STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING
   AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/20/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...
   
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