MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT SUN APR 11 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM WATCH SIXTY-EIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 112035Z - 112230Z
   
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF WW...W OF
   SEA BREEZE FRONT.  EXPECT RELATIVELY STABLE AIR E OF SEA BREEZE
   FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHILE
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS HAIL/GUST THREAT WITH INLAND
   CONVECTION.  MODIFIED 18Z CHS RAOB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND SBCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.
    WRN EXTENT OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MODULATED BY SFC
   BAROCLINIC ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM TYRRELL COUNTY NC TO RICHMOND
   COUNTY...THEN SWWD INTO SC NEAR CAE.  BECAUSE SO MANY TSTMS ARE
   PRESENT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND CELL MERGERS MAY PLAY
   SIGNIFICANT LOCAL ROLE IN STORM INTENSIFICATION...AND ALSO IN HEAVY
   RAINFALL POTENTIAL.  1.5 INCH PW AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGING/TRAINING
   CELLS SUGGEST RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD BE COMMON...LOCALLY
   APPROACHING 3 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIEST CORES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/11/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...
   
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